Sun, 06/14 · Model: v2.5
The portfolio uses favorite directions only where supported, then protects official handicap and low-score draw boundaries after the June 13 review
Main pattern: Home/Home · leads mostly held · limited comeback signal
Final result 7-1. Germany win direction was right, but both ZC and YZ capped the score too low. The model underweighted the high-score guard: a deep favorite with a 4+ total-goals route, no-BTTS bias that still allows favorite-only scoring, and a weak underdog goalkeeper/depth profile must keep a five-plus ceiling in review.
Final result 2-2. The YZ draw route and Japan +1 protection were the useful signals; ZC kept Netherlands win too high. The miss came from treating the stronger side as a direction anchor while the Asian line, BTTS, and total-goals structure already kept a live draw/high-score route.
Final result 1-0. The underdog-protection and low-score read were right, but the model over-promoted draw and did not let the protected home side convert into a one-goal win. The correction is to allow 1-0 when the protected side has low-water support and the total-goals line stays compressed.